Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are tracking as the fourth warmest year since 1850, though significant variance remains depending on the final six months of data [2]. Current crowd-implied probability of 34% for a top-three ranking aligns with historical volatility where recent years like 2023 and 2024 surged unexpectedly due to El Niño conditions [1]. The World Meteorological Organisation notes an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record, suggesting the market is pricing in a near-miss rather than a definitive record-break [1].

Traders should monitor the release of the full-year Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, which typically becomes available in early 2027, as this is the definitive settlement source [2]. Key catalysts include monthly NOAA and EU Climate Service reports; May 2026 already registered as the second-highest global surface temperature in the 177-year record, providing a strong baseline for the annual average [8]. Any sudden shifts in Pacific Ocean temperatures or unseasonal heatwaves in the final quarter could rapidly alter the ranking trajectory, directly impacting the depth of funding flows required to support deeper book liquidity on the Klarna and SEPA on-ramps.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.