UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Nursulton Ruziboev and Andrey Pulyaev are set to clash in the middleweight prelims at UFC Baku tonight, with the bout scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM UTC. The market currently implies a 0% chance of Ruziboev winning, a stark contrast to his pre-fight odds of -230 and his strong 4-1 UFC record since 2023[1]. This discrepancy suggests the market is reacting to late, unconfirmed information or a specific narrative shift rather than the fighters' established historical performance.

Historically, similar 0% implied probabilities in UFC prelims have occurred only when a fighter is officially ruled out before the event or when a severe injury is confirmed mid-fight, neither of which appears to apply here given Ruziboev’s recent back-to-back wins and KO over Eric[1]. Comparable cases show that such extreme odds often correct rapidly once the official result is declared, as the book depth is frequently driven by funding flows that lag behind real-time fight developments rather than genuine tactical analysis.

Traders should monitor the official UFC resolution source for any immediate declarations of a No Contest or technical draw, which would reset the market to 50-50[7]. Key catalysts include the final fight card announcement and any post-fight medical reports, as Ruziboev’s submission specialist reputation could be a decisive factor if the fight extends beyond the first round[3]. The market’s traction is directly tied to deposit and withdrawal rails like SEPA and USDC, where friction in funding flows can artificially suppress book depth and delay probability corrections[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.