Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 100% |
| Keir Starmer | 100% |
| Giorgia Meloni | 100% |
| Joseph Aoun | 100% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 58% |
| Elon Musk | 14% |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 3% |
| Vladimir Putin | 1% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 1% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 1% |
| Kim Jong Un | 0% |
| Xi Jinping | 0% |
Market context
Donald Trump has already had a run of foreign-policy meetings and reported encounter windows this month, including talks with Volodymyr Zelenskiy around the NATO summit and a possible White House meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu, which keeps the July calendar active but still selective.[1][2] He also met Lebanon’s president on 21 July, showing that in-person meetings are continuing even late in the month, but each outcome still depends on travel, protocol, and last-minute scheduling rather than a fixed public roster.[3]
Historically, these markets are best read through the difference between *broad availability* and *named confirmation*. Trump’s travel-heavy foreign-policy schedule can create several plausible meeting paths, yet probability stays low until there is explicit reporting of a specific July encounter, because many proposed visits slip, merge into larger events, or are converted into brief pull-asides rather than formal sit-downs.[1][4] A 0% crowd price usually signals that the book is thin and traders are waiting for a confirmed name rather than pricing every speculative diplomatic contact.
For traders, the main catalysts are official readouts, pool reports, and press-access windows tied to scheduled summits, bilateral visits, or White House arrivals. Reuters has already flagged Trump’s NATO-linked meeting slate and Axios reported that Netanyahu had asked for a White House meeting, so any fresh confirmation, cancellation, or venue change could move this market quickly.[1][2][4] On the funding side, traction in these short-dated political books tends to come from low-friction deposits and fast withdrawals: Klarna on-ramp flow can broaden participation, while SEPA and USDC rails make it easier for European and crypto-native traders to fund and recycle balances, supporting deeper order books when a late-news catalyst lands.
Methodology
This page compares Who will Trump meet with in July? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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