Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's continued tenure as President through 30 June 2026 is the baseline assumption priced into this market at 99% probability. The resolution criteria capture any permanent cessation of office—resignation, removal via impeachment and conviction, or invocation of the 25th Amendment—with an announcement alone triggering immediate settlement regardless of effective date. Temporary suspension does not qualify.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting US President has been removed via the 25th Amendment; Richard Nixon resigned in August 1974 after the House Judiciary Committee approved articles of impeachment, facing near-certain Senate conviction. Andrew Johnson survived impeachment in 1868 by a single Senate vote. Impeachment requires a House majority; conviction requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority. With Republicans controlling both chambers through 2026, the institutional pathway to removal remains exceptionally narrow. The 25th Amendment's Section 4 mechanism—Cabinet-triggered removal—requires Vice-Presidential support and Congressional override, an untested and politically fraught process.

Traders monitoring this market should track legislative developments around ongoing investigations, judicial proceedings affecting Trump's legal exposure, and any statements from Cabinet members regarding presidential fitness. Recent reporting on Trump's health and stamina occasionally surfaces in mainstream outlets, though such commentary rarely translates into formal removal proceedings. Deposit and withdrawal friction on prediction platforms—particularly SEPA rails for UK traders and Klarna's payment staging—can affect liquidity depth in low-probability markets. The 1% pricing reflects consensus that removal within 18 months remains a tail-risk event, though book depth may remain thin given the extended settlement window and minimal trading activity expected absent a major political shock.

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Klarna UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.