Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Sanhui Shin and Alexander Chang were scheduled to meet in an ITF Men’s Bali match, and the market is pricing that outcome at **0% YES**, which is consistent with an event that has not been pick-up traded or has little visible liquidity around the named player path. In thin tennis books, especially at ITF level, pricing often reflects whether deposits have actually reached the market rather than a strong read on the athletes themselves: if on-ramp flow is slow, depth stays shallow, spreads can look one-sided, and a zero can persist until a confirmed start or official update brings in fresh funding.
Comparable lower-tier tennis markets often move only when the draw, start time, or withdrawal status is clarified, because ITF scheduling can change late and without broad media attention. That matters for settlement here: if the match is postponed, cancelled, or not completed within the seven-day window, the market can resolve to 50-50 rather than either player, so traders tend to watch for tournament order-of-play updates and any retirement or walkover notice. The most useful catalyst is a clean confirmation that both players are still active in the draw, because that typically attracts the fastest deposits from users funding via card or bank rails, while slower settlement paths such as SEPA or USDC can leave the book quieter until later in the session.
Methodology
This page compares ITF Bali: Sanhui Shin vs Alexander Chang with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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