Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Thiago Agustin Tirante is set to meet Taylor Fritz in the National Bank Open, with the market already pricing a Fritz advance at **100% YES**. That fits the basic ranking gap: Fritz is ATP No. 9 in the tournament listings, while Tirante is around No. 65, and the pair have no prior tour-level head-to-head record[10][2][8].
Historical comparables point the same way. Fritz has a much stronger overall profile, with a career record of 347–220 and a 65.7% win rate over the past 52 weeks, while Tirante’s career record is 15–17 and his recent level is more volatile[2][1]. On hard courts, Fritz’s season numbers and serve dominance are materially better; one recent comparison shows Fritz averaging 16.9 aces per match versus 11.7 for Tirante, with higher first-serve success and stronger break-point defence[7]. That kind of gap usually supports a short price unless the favourite has a fitness issue or the event context changes.
For traders, the main catalysts are not match quality but *funding and timing friction* around the book. Prediction-market depth tends to thicken when deposits clear quickly through card rails or instant methods such as Klarna, while SEPA can be slower and USDC flows can be larger but more sensitive to wallet/bridge steps; that mix affects how quickly a market reaches and holds a consensus price. The key sporting dependencies are the official order of play, any weather interruption, and whether the match starts on time at the National Bank Open; live status pages were already carrying the fixture on 5 August, so the immediate watchpoint is whether it proceeds as scheduled or is pushed into the 7-day settlement edge case[5][15][16].
Methodology
This page compares National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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