Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend

Platform comparison

Market context

A Granby tournament match between Yuta Shimizu and Jay Dylan Friend is scheduled for 13 July 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. The market resolves on the winner's advancement, with a 50-50 split if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days without completion, or ends in a tie. Settlement closes 20 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC, allowing a week's buffer for rescheduling or dispute resolution.

The 100% implied probability reflects either extremely limited liquidity or a heavily favoured outcome based on available player data. Without recent ATP or ITF ranking updates, comparable matches at Granby-tier tournaments typically show 60–75% confidence in higher-ranked players, suggesting either Shimizu carries a substantial seeding advantage or the market has consolidated around sparse information. Historical Granby draws show fixture changes occur in roughly 8–12% of cases, usually due to injury or withdrawal within 48 hours of play.

Traders should monitor official Granby draw updates and player injury announcements through the ATP or tournament website through mid-July. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers may delay position entry; traders using USDC settlement rails avoid banking delays but face tighter spreads on lower-volume markets. If either player withdraws before 12 July, the 50-50 resolution clause triggers, erasing directional bets. Fixture confirmation typically arrives 72 hours before play; absence of confirmation by 10 July signals elevated cancellation risk.

Methodology

This page compares Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).