Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 92% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Match O/U 21.5 | 11% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Match O/U 23.5 | 7% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 Winner | 6% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | 4% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Alexei Popyrin’s meeting with Thiago Agustín Tirante at the National Bank Open is a straight win-or-advance market, and the current 52% crowd price suggests a near coin-flip with a slight lean to Popyrin. That is consistent with the absence of any prior head-to-head on record, so traders are leaning more on surface context and recent hard-court results than on matchup history.[3][11][13]
Comparable records point in different directions. Popyrin is the higher-ranked player in the match listing, at ATP No. 139 versus Tirante’s No. 65, but the recent form split is less one-sided than the ranking gap suggests.[13] One stats feed shows Tirante with a stronger 2026 win rate and a better last-12-month win percentage, while another notes Popyrin’s strong Montreal history, including a perfect 8-0 main-draw record at the event.[1][11][17] For market readers, that kind of tension often matters more than headline ranking because books deepen when money can move quickly on a familiar venue edge.
Catalysts are mostly operational: official match order, any draw reshuffle, and whether either player is confirmed to start on schedule. The tournament’s own results page is the cleanest source for live status, while live-score services confirm the fixture and indicate the market has already been paired as a Round 3/third-round contest.[5][6][13] On the funding side, depth tends to improve when deposits are frictionless, so traders watching this market will care about payment rails that clear quickly, especially SEPA, card-on-ramp options such as Klarna, and crypto withdrawal routes like USDC; slower funding or payout rails usually suppresses immediate follow-through, which can keep a market parked near the midpoint even when the sporting case is slightly directional.
Methodology
This page compares National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
Trade National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin… on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →