Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Filip Pieczonka is due to play Harold Mayot in the Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger round of 32, a matchup that on paper is heavily skewed towards the higher-ranked player. Flashscore and 365Scores list Mayot around ATP No. 255, while Pieczonka is shown much further down the rankings as a wild card or lower-ranked entrant, which helps explain why the crowd has marked the underdog side at **0% YES** despite the match being scheduled and visible on multiple scoreboards.[1][3][4]
That sort of pricing is consistent with Challenger markets where the favourite has a clear ranking edge and the only real uncertainty is whether the fixture actually takes place cleanly. Comparable ATP Challenger listings for Pieczonka–Mayot and related Grodzisk pages show the event as a standard first-round or round-of-32 match, which usually leaves less room for volatility than main-tour draws, but more operational risk than a fully established ATP event.[2][5][7] In that sense, the current zero bid reflects both the expected tennis mismatch and the fact that small-field books can stay thin until play is imminent.[11]
For traders focused on payment and on-ramp friction, the main catalyst is whether liquidity arrives through fast, low-fee deposits and withdrawals rather than through fresh sports news. Markets like this tend to get deeper when users can move funds quickly via SEPA, card rails such as Klarna where available, or settlement-friendly crypto like USDC, because easier funding supports tighter spreads and more follow-through on a favourite that is already obvious on the data feeds. The practical watchpoints are the official match status, any schedule changes, and whether the draw is confirmed to start on time; if the fixture is delayed beyond the settlement window rules, the market can revert away from a simple winner result.[1][3][10]
Methodology
This page compares Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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