Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Game Spread +/-0.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Francesco Passaro’s meeting with Felix Gill is a US Open men’s qualifying match, and the draw and live listings place both players in the first round on 24 August 2026, with Passaro listed around world No 222 and Gill around No 221 in the match feeds.[1][2][9] That is the sort of near-even, late-entry profile that usually keeps a qualifying market close to the pre-match price unless one side is formally withdrawn, because the information set is thin and the ranking gap is negligible.[1][2]
For pricing, the main comparable is not a star-driven main-draw match but a qualifying-round contest where settlement risk is mostly about whether the match is actually completed. The US Open’s qualifying schedule runs from 24 to 27 August, with ESPN and the tournament’s own feeds carrying the early rounds, so the key catalyst is whether the result is recorded on court before the qualifying window closes.[4][8][10] If a postponement, walkover or cancellation follows, this market’s 14-day fallback clause matters more than the on-court price because unresolved ties drift to 50-50 by rule.
Depth in a market like this tends to come from funding convenience rather than deep conviction. On-ramp friction is lower when deposits can clear through card-linked rails such as Klarna, SEPA transfers or USDC, which can pull in smaller, faster-staking flows and support tighter books around a live qualifying fixture like this one.
Methodology
This page compares US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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