Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Swiss Open grass-court tournament in Gstaad will host a first-round encounter between Spanish qualifier Pedro Martinez and German left-hander Yannick Hanfmann on 13 July 2026. Martinez, ranked outside the top 100, typically competes on the Challenger circuit and has limited ATP main-draw experience on grass. Hanfmann, a former top-80 player, has struggled with consistency in recent seasons but retains baseline solidity and occasional deep runs at lower-tier events. The 0% crowd probability reflects minimal trading activity rather than analytical certainty—a common pattern for lower-profile early-round matches where deposit friction and withdrawal delays suppress initial liquidity.
Historical precedent suggests that matches between unranked or barely-ranked players at established ATP tournaments attract sparse order books until the settlement window narrows. When traders face multi-day SEPA processing times or Klarna payment holds, capital allocation tilts toward higher-profile fixtures with deeper books and tighter spreads. Hanfmann's seeding status (if any) and recent grass-court preparation will matter more than raw ranking; Martinez's qualifying run demonstrates match fitness but offers limited predictive signal on grass performance.
Traders should monitor official Swiss Open draw confirmations and any late withdrawals through early July. Hanfmann's injury record warrants checking ATP Tour updates, as grass-court tournaments often see last-minute scratches. Settlement occurs 7 days post-scheduled date; any delay beyond that triggers a 50-50 resolution. Early liquidity typically arrives 48–72 hours before play, when deposit-to-trade cycles align with match-day volatility.
Methodology
This page compares Swiss Open: Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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