Kosice: Guido Justo vs Lilian Marmousez

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Guido Justo and Lilian Marmousez are scheduled to meet in Kosice on 25 May 2026, with the winner advancing in the tournament bracket. The match carries a settlement deadline of 1 June 2026 at 08:00 UTC, allowing a six-day window for completion before the market resolves. The 0% implied probability reflects minimal trading activity rather than certainty of outcome; such low-liquidity markets often indicate sparse order flow, typical of lower-tier ATP or Challenger events where retail participation remains concentrated on higher-profile fixtures.

Historical precedent from Challenger-level tennis shows that matches scheduled in Eastern European venues like Kosice experience completion rates above 95%, with retirements and walkovers accounting for most non-finishes. Both players' recent form and seeding status will determine whether the market remains dormant or attracts backing once draw confirmation occurs. The Kosice event typically runs on clay courts, a surface that can influence player matchups substantially; surface-specific injury patterns and playing styles often shift probability distributions once draw details circulate.

Traders monitoring this market should watch for official tournament draw publication, typically released 48–72 hours before the event begins. Payment friction on smaller markets remains material—deposits via Klarna or SEPA transfers may take 1–2 business days to settle, potentially delaying position entry for late-stage traders. Withdrawal rails for modest stakes often favour USDC settlement or bank transfers, though processing times can extend beyond the match conclusion if liquidity remains thin. Early confirmation of both players' participation status will be the primary catalyst for any shift in implied probability.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.