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National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti

Trade "National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti" — Klarna, SOFORT, SEPA, USDC: every payment rail at a glance.

National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 8.5 68% National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti 56% National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 21.5 56% National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 Winner 55% Volume: $71K Liquidity: $263K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
68% 32% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
68% 32% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 8.568%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti56%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 21.556%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 Winner55%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 Winner54%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 8.551%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 9.551%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 2 O/U 10.551%
Completed Match50%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 22.548%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Match O/U 23.545%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Total Sets: O/U 2.542%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 10.535%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.534%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set 1 O/U 9.531%
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti Set Handicap +/-1.527%

Market context

Rafael Jodar and Lorenzo Musetti are already familiar to the market because they played a straight-sets swing match in Washington in late July, where Jodar came through 2-1 after dropping the opening set. That result matters for pricing because it shows the pairing is not a clean mismatch: Musetti was the higher-ranked player, but Jodar proved he can absorb early pressure and still finish the job, which helps explain why the crowd is only modestly leaning towards one side rather than making the outcome a near-certainty.[8][12]

For a payments-friction lens, the key point is that this sort of tennis market tends to deepen when fast, low-cost funding rails are working smoothly. Clear deposit options such as Klarna-style instant bank funding, SEPA transfers, and USDC can reduce the time between conviction and order placement, which supports tighter books and more responsive pricing when line-ups or retirements move late. The main catalysts to watch are official ATP scheduling updates, any change to the National Bank Open order of play, and confirmation that both players are fit to start; if the match is postponed, suspended, or pushed outside the settlement window, the market can revert to a 50-50 outcome under the rules, so headline risk is not just about who advances but whether the match is completed at all.[6][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
Which payment methods are supported?
Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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Related Topics

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