Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Croatia Open, held annually in Umag on clay courts, will host a first-round encounter between French qualifier Kyrian Jacquet and Argentine journeyman Marco Trungelliti in July 2026. Both players operate at the lower reaches of the ATP rankings, with limited recent tournament visibility. Jacquet, a left-hander from Lyon, has competed sporadically on the Challenger circuit; Trungelliti, based in Buenos Aires, has cycled through qualifying rounds at regional events with modest success rates. The 4:00 AM ET scheduling reflects typical early-round slot allocation at secondary ATP 250 events, where court availability and broadcast windows compress lower-seeded matches into off-peak hours.
Historical resolution patterns for matches between players ranked outside the top 200 show high completion rates once scheduled, though weather delays on clay surfaces occasionally push matches beyond the seven-day window specified in this market's terms. The 0% crowd probability suggests either minimal liquidity depth or genuine uncertainty about whether the match will proceed as scheduled. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers typically peaks during high-volatility market windows; low-probability niche matches like this one often see book depth constrained by payment-rail delays rather than genuine trader conviction.
Traders should monitor the ATP's official draw confirmation and any weather alerts for the Umag region in mid-July. Injury withdrawals or scheduling conflicts affecting either player would trigger the 50-50 tie resolution. Recent Challenger results for both players, published on the ATP website, will provide the most current form data before settlement closes on 20 July.
Methodology
This page compares Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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