Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas | 0% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Andre Ilagan and Edas Butvilas are scheduled to meet in Lexington on outdoor hard courts, with the listed start around 17:00 UTC and both players sitting close together in the ATP rankings on the eve of the match.[2][13] The market’s 0% implied YES price suggests almost no book depth on the yes side, which is often what you see when funding is thin and traders are facing payment friction rather than a strong directional view. In practice, that can reflect a market where deposits arrive in bursts, but withdrawal and on-ramp choices matter just as much as the tennis line itself.
The historical frame is narrow but useful: the pair have already met once in 2026, and Ilagan won that match in straight sets at Tyler on hard court.[3][11] That prior result is the cleanest head-to-head anchor, though it is still only one data point and does not guarantee repeat performance. Recent live feeds also indicate the Lexington match was active on 9 August 2026, so any sharp move in price will likely track whether the contest is completed cleanly or whether the exchange has to fall back on its tie/cancellation rules.[2][10]
For traders, the main catalysts are administrative rather than tactical: confirmation that the match is actually played, whether the scheduled court time holds, and whether any interruption pushes settlement into the market’s seven-day window. If the event is delayed, abandoned, or never starts, the 50-50 fallback becomes relevant; if it starts and finishes, the winner determines resolution.[2] That matters most for users funding via faster rails such as Klarna, SEPA, or USDC, because shallow liquidity can widen when fresh deposits are slow to land and withdrawals are routed through different rails than the ones used to enter the position.
Methodology
This page compares Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
Trade Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas on Polymarket Klarna UK
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