Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse | 0% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Kilian Feldbausch and Ignacio Buse are scheduled to meet in an ATP Generali Open match, with reporting putting the start time at 14:55 UTC on 22 July and the contest expected on the central court in front of a 5,400-capacity crowd.[1][3] Buse has been listed as the market and betting favourite, with one preview pricing him at roughly 65.5% implied win probability versus 40.8% for Feldbausch, which is broadly consistent with a market that is still thin but not directionless.[2]
For prediction markets, the key comparison is how quickly tennis books reprice once line-ups, court order, and withdrawal news become clear. A 0% YES print can persist when participation is already priced as effectively settled, but it can also reflect funding friction rather than strong conviction, especially where deposits are slowed by bank transfer timing, card declines, or users waiting for cheaper on-ramps such as SEPA, Klarna, or USDC before adding size. In practice, those frictions matter because shallow books often move only when fresh capital arrives, not when opinions merely change.
The main catalysts are operational rather than tactical: confirmation that the match actually starts, any late court reassignment, and any withdrawal or walkover notice from the ATP or tournament desk. If the match is delayed, suspended, or not completed, the settlement rules around a no-contest or tie become relevant; if it is played through, the advancing player resolves the market. Live broadcast listings and match-order updates are therefore the most useful short-term checks for traders, because they determine whether liquidity is being deployed into an active match or held back until the result is clearer.[1][3]
Methodology
This page compares Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse on Polymarket Klarna UK
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