Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic

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Market context

Raphael Collignon and Aleksandar Vukic are scheduled to meet in the opening rounds of Roland Garros in late May 2026. Collignon, a Belgian player ranked outside the top 100, faces the Australian Vukic, who has held ATP rankings in the 50–80 range and competes regularly on the professional circuit. The match carries standard first-round volatility: both players are capable of winning on clay, though neither commands the seeding or recent form that would typically shift odds dramatically.

The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptionally thin liquidity in this market's order book or a structural assumption that one player will withdraw before the scheduled 5:00 AM ET start on 24 May. Roland Garros draws roughly 600,000 spectators annually and generates substantial broadcast revenue, creating strong incentives for matches to proceed as scheduled. However, late withdrawals due to injury or illness occur in approximately 3–5% of ATP first-round fixtures. Settlement hinges on whether the match is completed by 31 May; any cancellation or delay beyond seven days without a result triggers a 50-50 split.

Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA transfers should monitor the ATP's official injury reports and practice-court schedules in the week before the tournament. Recent Roland Garros broadcasts (2024–2025) show that weather delays are rare in late May, though rain has occasionally compressed the schedule. Book depth will likely remain shallow until the draw is officially published and player confirmations are finalised, typically 10–14 days before the tournament begins. Withdrawal liquidity tends to spike in the 48 hours before play.

Methodology

We track Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.