Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi | 0% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Dan Added’s match against Kenta Miyoshi in the Samsun Challenger has already carried through live scoring feeds, with multiple listings placing it on the outdoor hard courts at the tournament’s centre court and starting around 09:00–10:30 UTC. Added is the higher-ranked player at ATP 224, while Miyoshi is around ATP 602, but the market’s current 0% YES implies the listed winner route has effectively been priced out by the time of settlement, rather than by pre-match strength alone.[1][2][4]
The closest comparable framing is a lower-tier Challenger meeting with no prior head-to-head, where rank gap and recent match rhythm matter more than brand recognition. Public prediction pages were split before play, with some models leaning Added and others favouring Miyoshi in three sets, which is typical in Challenger books where small changes in entry lists, retirement risk, or live score progression can move thin markets quickly.[10][14][18] That kind of setup is also where funding friction matters: traders who can move money in via card-linked rails or cheaper transfers tend to fill early liquidity, while slower deposit and withdrawal paths generally leave books shallower.
For traders watching the settlement window, the key catalysts are straightforward: confirmation that the match is completed, any retirement or walkover language from the tournament, and whether the result is finalised within seven days of the scheduled date. If the event was merely delayed, rescheduled, or abandoned without a winner, the market’s rules point away from a straight winner resolution and towards the fallback 50–50 outcome. Live score services showed the contest in progress on 30 July, so the main dependency is the official completed result rather than any fresh scheduling notice.[1][3][15]
Methodology
This page compares Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Samsun: Dan Added vs Kenta Miyoshi on Polymarket Klarna UK
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