Claude 5 released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not yet released Claude 5 as of early 2025. The question hinges on whether a model explicitly branded as Claude 5 will reach unrestricted public availability—via API, web interface, or open beta—before the end of 2025. Current crowd pricing at 0% reflects scepticism that this timeline is achievable, given the company's historical release cadence and the engineering effort required to move from Claude 3.5 Sonnet to a next-generation flagship model.

Anthropic's release history provides the clearest precedent. Claude 3 (Opus, Sonnet, Haiku) launched in March 2024 after Claude 2 in July 2023—a roughly nine-month interval. Claude 3.5 Sonnet arrived in June 2024, with Claude 3.5 Haiku following in October 2024. These gaps suggest the company prioritises stability and safety testing over rapid iteration. A Claude 5 announcement would likely require either a public roadmap statement or leaked training completion signals; neither has materialised as of February 2025. The company has shown willingness to space major releases across quarters, not months.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official communications channels and earnings-adjacent announcements from Anthropic's investors (Google, Salesforce, others) for hints of accelerated development timelines. Any public statement from Anthropic's leadership committing to a 2025 Claude 5 launch would shift market odds materially. Conversely, silence through Q2 2025 would reinforce the 0% reading, as a December release would require compressed beta and deployment phases that contradict the company's demonstrated approach to model rollout.

Methodology

We track Claude 5 released by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.