Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| July 9 | 59% |
| July 14 | 15% |
| July 8 | 6% |
| July 7 | 5% |
| July 10 | 5% |
| July 28 | 4% |
| July 16 | 3% |
| July 23 | 3% |
| Not released before August | 2% |
| July 11 | 1% |
| July 12 | 1% |
| July 13 | 1% |
| July 15 | 1% |
| July 19 | 1% |
| July 20 | 1% |
| July 22 | 1% |
| July 24 | 1% |
| June 24 or earlier | 0% |
| June 25 | 0% |
| June 26 | 0% |
| June 27 | 0% |
| June 28 | 0% |
| June 29 | 0% |
| June 30 | 0% |
| July 1 | 0% |
| July 2 | 0% |
| July 3 | 0% |
| July 4 | 0% |
| July 5 | 0% |
| July 6 | 0% |
| July 17 | 0% |
| July 18 | 0% |
| July 21 | 0% |
| July 25 | 0% |
| July 26 | 0% |
| July 27 | 0% |
| July 29 | 0% |
| July 30 | 0% |
| July 31 | 0% |
Market context
The GPT-5.6 released on 2026? prediction market currently prices this outcome at 59% YES. This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public. GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is…
Methodology
This page compares GPT-5.6 released on 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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