Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Syria's formal diplomatic recognition of Israel remains one of the most distant possibilities in Middle Eastern statecraft. The two countries have been in a state of war since 1973, with Syria maintaining the Golan Heights dispute and serving as a key node in regional resistance networks. Any shift would require a fundamental realignment of Syrian foreign policy, domestic politics, and the broader regional security architecture—a threshold the current 3% probability reflects as highly unlikely within the two-year window.

Historical precedent offers limited encouragement. The Abraham Accords of 2020 saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalise ties with Israel, but both were Gulf monarchies with different strategic calculi and no active territorial disputes. Egypt and Jordan, the only Arab states to recognise Israel formally, did so through peace treaties in 1979 and 1994 respectively, each following military conflict and intensive US-brokered diplomacy. Syria's position differs markedly: it remains aligned with Iran and Hezbollah, faces ongoing civil war aftermath, and has no equivalent pressure from a superpower patron to shift course. Lebanon's recent ceasefire with Israel has not altered Syrian positioning.

Traders should monitor developments around Syrian reconstruction efforts and any shifts in Iranian influence following regional tensions. The Assad government's potential rehabilitation into Arab League structures could theoretically create diplomatic space, though recognition of Israel would remain politically toxic domestically. Formal announcements from Damascus regarding normalisation talks would be the primary catalyst, though such statements have not materialised. The settlement window extends through end-2026, capturing any unexpected diplomatic breakthrough, but structural barriers remain formidable.

Methodology

This page compares Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

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