Starmer out by...?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Keir Starmer became Prime Minister in July 2024 following Labour's general election victory. This market tests whether he remains in post through 2025, with resolution triggered by any announcement of resignation or removal before year-end, regardless of effective date. The 0% implied probability reflects the absence of imminent constitutional crisis or formal removal mechanisms in UK parliamentary practice.

British Prime Ministers typically leave office through general election defeat, voluntary resignation, or loss of Commons confidence. The last mid-term removal occurred in 1990 when Margaret Thatcher faced backbench rebellion over the poll tax; before that, Neville Chamberlain departed in 1940 amid wartime pressure. Starmer commands a substantial Commons majority and faces no formal leadership challenge process within Labour. Historical precedent suggests departure mid-parliament requires either extraordinary party fracture or personal decision—both currently absent from reporting.

Traders monitoring this market should track several dependencies: Labour's standing in monthly polling, any major Commons rebellions on flagship legislation, and announcements regarding health or personal circumstances. The Budget scheduled for March 2025 and any subsequent spending reviews represent key legislative moments where backbench dissent could surface. Media coverage of internal party tensions, particularly around economic policy or public service reform, would signal shifting pressure. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers affects position sizing for retail traders tracking longer-dated political risk, whilst USDC on-ramps enable faster entry if catalysts emerge unexpectedly.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.