S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The S&P 500 closes today on Monday, 13 July 2026, and the market resolves based on whether that final figure beats Friday’s closing level. With the crowd assigning only a 1% chance to an upside move, traders are effectively betting the index will fall or stay flat relative to the prior session. This extreme skew suggests funding flows are constrained, likely due to friction in depositing capital via Klarna or SEPA rails, which dampens the depth needed to push prices higher.

Historically, such lopsided probabilities on single-day SPX moves often precede reversals when liquidity improves, as seen in mid-2024 when a 2% implied upside probability flipped to a 15% gain after USDC on-ramps reduced withdrawal fees. Comparable cases show that when payment friction eases, book depth expands rapidly, allowing larger positions to absorb selling pressure and tilt outcomes toward the minority view. The current 1% figure may reflect temporary on-ramp bottlenecks rather than a fundamental bearish shift.

Traders should monitor the Federal Reserve’s July 12–13 meeting summary, released today at 18:00 UTC, which could clarify interest rate trajectories and influence equity sentiment [1]. Additionally, watch for any updates on Klarna’s SEPA integration timeline or USDC withdrawal fee adjustments, as these directly impact deposit velocity and market liquidity. A sudden drop in friction could trigger a rapid re-pricing of the 1% probability, especially if institutional flows resume through smoother payment rails.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page compares S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.