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World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals

Which platform accepts which deposit method for "World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals"? Klarna, SOFORT, card, USDC compared.

Argentina 61% France 52% Spain 43% England 38% Volume: $1.5M Liquidity: $2.3M Closes: 13 Jul 2026
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World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
61% 39% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
61% 39% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Argentina61%
France52%
Spain43%
England38%
Brazil34%
Netherlands22%
Portugal22%
Colombia20%
Germany19%
USA17%
Norway16%
Mexico14%
Belgium11%
Morocco9%
Switzerland9%
Senegal7%
Croatia5%
Egypt4%
Canada4%
Ivory Coast4%
Ecuador3%
Ghana3%
Austria3%
Australia2%
Paraguay2%
Algeria2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina1%
DR Congo1%
Sweden1%
Cape Verde1%
Haiti0%
Panama0%
Iran0%
Curacao0%
Japan0%
Tunisia0%
Qatar0%
Turkiye0%
Saudi Arabia0%
Jordan0%
South Korea0%
New Zealand0%
Iraq0%
Uzbekistan0%
Scotland0%
South Africa0%
Uruguay0%
Czechia0%

Market context

The World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals prediction market currently prices this outcome at 61% YES. This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifina…

Methodology

This page compares World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
Which payment methods are supported?
Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
What's the minimum deposit?
10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
How do withdrawals work?
Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Are payment details protected?
Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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