Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Other | — | |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 83% YES | 18% NO |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Song Yadong | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Rob Font | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Petr Yan, the former UFC bantamweight champion, will face an opponent to be officially announced by the UFC with a confirmed fight date. The Russian fighter's next bout represents a significant marker in the bantamweight division's competitive landscape, particularly given his recent trajectory following losses to Sean O'Malley and Umar Nurmagomedov. Resolution hinges entirely on an official UFC announcement that includes a scheduled date; speculation or undated reports will not trigger settlement.
Historical precedent suggests Yan's next matchup will likely emerge within the bantamweight top fifteen, mirroring the division's typical scheduling patterns for fighters of his ranking. When comparable contenders like Dominick Cruz or Marlon Moraes faced uncertain near-term opponents, market depth remained shallow until formal announcements materialised, typically 4–8 weeks before fight cards. The absence of a live price reflects this waiting period; traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA transfers should anticipate limited initial liquidity until the UFC confirms the pairing.
Watch for announcements from official UFC channels—the promotion's social media, press releases, and fighter interviews at media events. The bantamweight division's schedule for 2025 and early 2026 will dictate timing; major events like UFC Fight Nights or numbered pay-per-views often cluster fighter announcements. Recent reporting from MMA Junkie and ESPN MMA indicates the UFC typically schedules top-fifteen matchups 6–10 weeks in advance. Withdrawal options via SEPA or USDC settlement will become relevant once odds stabilise post-announcement, when book depth typically deepens and payment friction diminishes.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.1M.
Methodology
We track Who will Petr Yan fight next? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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