Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| Portugal O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Team to Advance | 70% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Croatia O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score | 51% |
| Portugal O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Portugal (-1.5) | 28% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 27% |
| O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 26% |
| Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Portugal O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Croatia O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 19% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 14% |
| Portugal (-2.5) | 12% |
| O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Croatia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| Croatia (-1.5) | 6% |
| Croatia O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Portugal (-3.5) | 5% |
| Portugal (-4.5) | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Croatia (-4.5) | 3% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Croatia (-2.5) | 1% |
| Croatia (-3.5) | 1% |
| Portugal (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Croatia (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 92% probability to portugal vs. croatia - more markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Portugal vs. Croatia - More Markets with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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