SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Napoli will travel to the Friuli region on 24 May 2026 to face Udinese in what is scheduled as a final-day Serie A fixture. The match carries potential implications for European qualification spots, depending on how the season unfolds across the league's top six. Settlement occurs at the whistle, with the market resolving YES if the fixture takes place as scheduled.

The 100% implied probability reflects the structural reliability of Serie A's fixture calendar rather than certainty about outcome. Final-day matches in Italy's top division have been postponed only in exceptional circumstances—typically weather events or security concerns affecting multiple fixtures simultaneously. Udinese's home ground at the Stadio Friuli has hosted Napoli consistently without cancellation since 2010, and no historical precedent exists for a single-team absence on a scheduled Serie A date. The settlement window's timing (13:00 UTC on match day) allows for standard kick-off delays but not rescheduling.

Traders monitoring this market should track fixture confirmation announcements from Lega Serie A, typically issued four weeks before the final matchday. Weather forecasts for the Udine region will become material in late May; whilst unlikely to trigger postponement, unseasonable conditions could affect liquidity flows on payment rails. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers tends to spike when traders hedge positions across multiple markets in the final week, so book depth may compress if competing fixtures generate simultaneous trading activity. Any injury or disciplinary suspensions affecting key players would influence related betting markets but not this fixture's probability of occurring.

Methodology

We track SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.