Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Colorado Rockies face the Arizona Diamondbacks on 24 May at 4:10 PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The 1% implied probability for a Rockies victory reflects the visitor's position in the National League West standings and recent form relative to Arizona, a team that has competed more consistently in 2025. Settlement occurs after the final out on 31 May, with postponements extending the window and cancellations triggering a 50-50 split.

Historical context shows that road teams in May typically trade at a discount of 3–7 percentage points depending on ballpark factors and pitching matchups. The Rockies' Coors Field advantage disappears entirely in Arizona, where the Diamondbacks' Chase Field has favoured home teams at roughly 54% win rates across recent seasons. Comparable May fixtures between these clubs over the past three years have seen visiting teams settle between 35–45% when facing Arizona at home, suggesting the current 1% pricing reflects either extreme confidence in the Diamondbacks or sparse liquidity in the order book.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 48–72 hours before game time and can shift probabilities by 2–4 points depending on recent performance and injury status. Weather conditions at Chase Field rarely impact play, but Arizona's roster depth in relief pitching has been a consistent edge factor. Deposit friction remains material for this market's book depth: traders using Klarna instalments or SEPA transfers often face settlement delays that compress late-action liquidity, whilst USDC on-ramps provide immediate capital access for larger positions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.