Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians face the Philadelphia Phillies on 23 May at 4:05 PM ET in a regular-season matchup. The current 37% implied probability for a Guardians victory reflects modest confidence in Cleveland's chances, with the Phillies favoured at roughly 63%. Settlement occurs by 30 May at 20:05 UTC, allowing five days for postponements or make-up games should weather or other disruptions occur.

Historical matchups between these franchises show competitive balance. Over the past three seasons, Cleveland has maintained a winning record against Philadelphia in head-to-head play, though the Phillies' recent postseason appearances (2022 World Series, 2023 National League Championship Series) signal stronger roster depth. The 37% probability sits below Cleveland's typical win expectancy in neutral matchups, suggesting the market is pricing in Philadelphia's current form or roster advantages at this specific juncture in the season.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments and injury reports through to game time, as rotation changes materially shift win probability. Recent trades, roster moves, or unexpected absences—particularly among position players—can shift the book significantly in the days before play. Deposit and withdrawal infrastructure remains stable across major payment rails; traders using Klarna, SEPA transfers, or USDC settlement should experience standard processing times, with liquidity depth typically supporting both entry and exit positions without material slippage on markets of this size.

Methodology

This page reviews Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.