Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets faced each other at Citi Field on Monday, 22 June 2026, for a 7:10pm ET MLB game that was ultimately rained out and postponed, with a split doubleheader now scheduled for Wednesday. This weather-driven disruption is the immediate real-world event shaping the market, as the settlement window remains open until the game is completed, preserving the current 45% YES probability for a Cubs win despite the delay.

Historically, similar MLB postponements due to rain have rarely altered the underlying win probability once play resumes, with teams generally maintaining their pre-delay form unless key players are rested or injured during the break. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that weather delays of one day typically result in settlement within 24–48 hours of the new start time, with no significant shift in the implied odds unless a pitcher is swapped—a pattern that frames how to read the current 45% figure as stable rather than speculative[4].

Traders should monitor the Mets’ official announcement regarding the Wednesday doubleheader start times and any updates on pitcher rotations, as a change in the starting pitcher could materially alter the Cubs’ win probability. The MLB confirmed the split doubleheader on Wednesday with start times at 1:10pm and 7:10pm ET, but the Mets have yet to confirm which game the original matchup will be assigned to, creating a short-term dependency that could affect book depth and funding flows tied to deposit rails like Klarna and USDC[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.