Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
14% | 86% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
14% | 86% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 14% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 1 - 1 Aston Villa | 11% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 2 - 1 Aston Villa | 11% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 2 - 0 Aston Villa | 10% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 1 - 0 Aston Villa | 9% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 3 - 0 Aston Villa | 7% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 3 - 1 Aston Villa | 7% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 0 - 0 Aston Villa | 6% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 2 - 2 Aston Villa | 6% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 0 - 1 Aston Villa | 5% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 1 - 2 Aston Villa | 5% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 3 - 2 Aston Villa | 4% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 0 - 2 Aston Villa | 2% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 1 - 3 Aston Villa | 2% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 2 - 3 Aston Villa | 2% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 0 - 3 Aston Villa | 1% |
| Paris Saint-Germain 3 - 3 Aston Villa | 1% |
Market context
The UEFA Super Cup on 12 August 2026 will pit Paris Saint-Germain against Aston Villa in a single-match knockout format, with settlement determined by the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The fixture represents a clash between the French champions and the English champions, contingent on their respective domestic title outcomes in the 2025–26 season. This market resolves only to the exact final score; any outcome not explicitly listed settles to "Any Other Score," a catch-all category that typically captures the majority of trading volume in exact-score markets.
The 6% implied probability reflects the specificity constraint inherent to exact-score betting. Historical UEFA Super Cup matches show wide score distributions: recent editions have produced 1–0, 2–1, 3–2, and 4–3 results, with no single scoreline appearing more than twice in the past decade. PSG's domestic dominance and Aston Villa's recent Premier League resurgence suggest both sides possess attacking depth, yet the single-elimination format and neutral-venue conditions (typically played in Helsinki or Warsaw) introduce defensive caution. Comparable exact-score markets on Polymarket have seen YES probabilities range from 3% to 12% depending on the specificity of the outcome and the liquidity available.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury reports from both clubs through July 2026, as key absences could shift tactical approaches and scoring patterns. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on match day, allowing for real-time price movement as team sheets are confirmed. Deposit flows via Klarna, SEPA transfers, and USDC on-ramps typically accelerate in the 48 hours before major sporting events; book depth in this market will likely correlate with payment rail availability and withdrawal processing times, as traders position ahead of the fixture.
Methodology
This page compares Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa - Exact Score with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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