UFC Fight Night: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Market context

Steven Asplund is set to face Guilherme Pat in a heavyweight main-card bout at UFC Fight Night, and the market is already pricing a near-certain Asplund win at 100% YES. That level is extreme even for a lopsided MMA matchup, so the main trading question is less about fighter quality than whether the book depth behind the market is being driven by fast funding and easy on-ramp access rather than fresh opinion alone.

Comparable pricing across sportsbooks and MMA prediction pages has Asplund around a -290 to -305 favourite, with implied win rates roughly in the low-to-mid 70s, while Pat sits near +235 to +253.[1][2][13][14][17] By contrast, a 100% crowd price usually appears when liquidity is thin, one side is being aggressively swept, or deposits are coming in quickly through low-friction rails such as SEPA or USDC; that can create a sharper headline number than the underlying win probability justified by the fighting data. Recent market pages also show zero or very light volume on the specific contract, which matters because a small amount of funded demand can move a low-float market much more than the sportsbook consensus would suggest.[9]

For traders, the key catalysts are the official UFC bout order, any late injury or weight-cut news, and whether the fight remains on the August 8 card and is still a scheduled main-card heavyweight contest by the settlement cutoff.[9] If the bout is confirmed unchanged, price action should depend mainly on whether fresh deposits arrive before lock-up, especially from users choosing faster settlement routes and lower conversion friction; if the fight is moved, cancelled, or not officially scored by UFC, the contract falls to the 50-50 fallback rather than a fighter win.[9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares UFC Fight Night: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Main Card) with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).