Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 70% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 66% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 64% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 56% |
| Salkilld to win by KO/TKO? | 50% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 46% |
| Fight won by submission? | 44% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 43% |
| Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld | 42% |
| Gamrot to win by KO/TKO? | 42% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 30% |
Market context
Mateusz Gamrot’s fight with Quillan Salkilld is a scheduled lightweight main-card bout at the UFC Apex, with the UFC listing it for 8 August and official fight-centre pages showing Gamrot at 26-4 against Salkilld at 12-1. The crowd-implied price of 42% for Gamrot is broadly consistent with a market that still gives the younger, unbeaten-in-UFC challenger a narrow edge, while keeping respect for Gamrot’s top-level experience and finishing upside. [5][6][9]
That split mirrors the usual pattern in UFC main events where a proven contender can trade at a discount if the opponent is a live prospect on a run of recent wins. Gamrot has alternated wins and losses in his last four bouts but returned to form with a second-round submission of Esteban Ribovics in April, whereas Salkilld has won five straight in the UFC since joining in 2025. Bookmakers and preview outlets have also leaned slightly towards Salkilld, which helps explain why Gamrot is not priced as the obvious side despite his ranking and résumé. [1][9][12]
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: the UFC’s final pre-fight announcements, any late card reshuffles, and whether the bout remains on the main event slot at all. Because this market settles only on the UFC’s official result, the key dependency is not just who looks sharper on weigh-in week, but whether the fight is completed cleanly, with no injury pull-outs, no catchweight complications and no postponement beyond the settlement window. In markets like this, funding friction matters too: deposits that clear quickly through Klarna, SEPA, or USDC can bring sharper short-term depth around the final days before the card, when liquidity usually tightens and price moves become more sensitive to late information.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $55K.
Methodology
This page compares UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card) with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
Trade UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld… on Polymarket Klarna UK
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