Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 83% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 65% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 50% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 47% |
| Rakic to win by KO/TKO? | 47% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 43% |
| Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic | 24% |
| Tybura to win by KO/TKO? | 8% |
| Fight won by submission? | 6% |
Market context
Marcin Tybura’s heavyweight bout with Aleksandar Rakić sits in a market that is still trading well below a coin flip, with the crowd at 24% YES despite sportsbook-style previews leaning the other way. That gap matters because Tybura is the more established heavyweight operator on paper, with a long UFC record and enough clinch-and-top-control upside to create upset equity if the fight gets messy rather than staying at kickboxing range.[2][19]
Comparable fight reads point towards Rakić being favoured on pace and defence, while Tybura’s path is more dependent on dragging exchanges into wrestling-heavy sequences. Public previews have Rakić priced as the clearer pre-fight favourite, and several breakdowns highlight his higher striking volume and stronger takedown defence, while Tybura’s case is built around experience, durability, and late-round grappling pressure.[8][12][13] In market terms, that usually produces shallow early support for the underdog unless there is a strong fee-efficient on-ramp, because smaller deposits tend to stick to favourites when funding friction is high.
The main catalysts are the official UFC walkout and result declaration, plus any late card reshuffle if a bout is moved or delayed before the settlement window closes. Traders should watch for confirmation from UFC media and result feeds on fight night, because this market resolves strictly off the official winner and would go 50-50 if the bout is ruled a draw, no contest, or otherwise unscored.[6] Funding conditions can also matter to depth: when Klarna, SEPA, or USDC deposits are quick and withdrawal rails are predictable, books often widen into the main card as fresh capital arrives close to start time.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $59K.
Methodology
This page compares UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card) with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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