Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 100% |
| Medic to win by KO/TKO? | 100% |
| Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic | 0% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 0% |
| Rodriguez to win by KO/TKO? | 0% |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 0% |
Market context
UFC Fight Night’s welterweight main-card bout between Daniel Rodriguez and Uroš Medic is a live fight market, but the crowd-implied **0% YES** leaves it priced as if the market is still waiting on money to clear through the on-ramp. That matters here because these books usually deepen only when deposits arrive cleanly and quickly; friction from card rejections, bank transfer latency, or withdrawal preferences can keep early interest thin even when the matchup itself is well known.
The historical frame is a contrast between Rodriguez’s longer, more measured profile and Medic’s more explosive but less durable one. UFC stats list Rodriguez at 20-5-0 and Medic at 13-3-0, with Rodriguez landing more significant strikes per minute and absorbing fewer than Medic, while Medic owns the stronger knockout rate and a much shorter average fight time.[4] Comparable stats pages point the same way: Rodriguez has more decision wins, while Medic’s wins are overwhelmingly by KO/TKO, which makes the market more sensitive to late tape, weight-class context and any last-minute read-through on durability than to slow, grinding trends.[2][5]
For traders, the main catalysts are operational rather than speculative: final bout confirmation, official weigh-in results, and any late card reshuffle that changes whether the fight stays on the main card or is re-ordered. With settlement tied to the UFC’s official result and the window running to 2 August 2026, liquidity can still shift sharply on the event day if payment rails behave smoothly — especially where **Klarna**, **SEPA** and **USDC** deposits reduce funding friction and pull in fresh book depth. If there is any late commission issue, injury update or cancellation, the market can snap to 50-50 immediately under the rules.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $353K.
Methodology
This page compares UFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card) with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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