Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 75% |
| Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues | 67% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 65% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 52% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 49% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 36% |
| Fight won by submission? | 28% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 28% |
| Rodrigues to win by KO/TKO? | 26% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 24% |
| Hernandez to win by KO/TKO? | 24% |
Market context
Anthony Hernandez’s middleweight main event with Gregory Rodrigues is scheduled for UFC Fight Night in Sacramento on 22 August 2026, with the bout carrying the usual end-of-card settlement risk only if the official UFC result is delayed, changed, or ruled non-action. The current 67% yes price implies Hernandez is a clear favourite, but not a lock; that is broadly consistent with pre-fight moneylines from other MMA listings that had him around the -200 to -225 range, leaving Rodrigues live if the market has over-weighted recent momentum or card familiarity.
Comparable UFC main events tend to trade close to the odds market rather than the broader name recognition market, so the key question is whether the price already reflects the path-to-victory edge in a five-round middleweight bout. In practical terms, the book depth here will usually depend less on headline interest than on how easily users can move funds in and out: lower-friction deposits and faster settlement rails usually support tighter spreads and more repeated sizing, while extra steps at the on-ramp can leave the book thinner even when the event is well known.
For traders, the immediate catalysts are simple: the official UFC result, any late bout-change notice, and whether the fight reaches the scorecards or ends in a no contest. The event is scheduled for 22 August at Golden 1 Centre, Sacramento, and was being broadcast on Paramount+, so the main risk window is concentrated around the end of the main event and the UFC’s post-fight confirmation. If the result is cleanly posted, the market should resolve on that official outcome; if the fight is altered, cancelled, or not scored, the fallback 50-50 outcome becomes relevant.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $206K.
Methodology
This page compares UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card) with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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