UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Allan Nascimento’s flyweight meeting with Mitch Raposo is an official UFC prelim on the Kape–Horiguchi card, with the bout listed for 20 June and the market set to resolve from the UFC’s result call.[2][6] A 0% crowd-implied price is notable because it can reflect a thin, inactive book rather than a true no-chance view, especially in fight markets where smaller deposits, awkward on-ramp steps, and withdrawal preferences such as Klarna, SEPA, or USDC can suppress early liquidity before weigh-ins and lock-in hours.[2][6]

The main comparable frame is the earlier line movement around this pairing: Raposo’s bout was once moved after illness, which is exactly the kind of scheduling dependency that keeps money cautious until the fight is formally in place.[4] On paper, the market has also been shaped by the usual UFC prelim pattern in which a less-established younger fighter can attract speculative backing only if there is a clear stylistic angle, while consensus previews pointed to Raposo needing extended stand-up rounds to improve his path.[3] That makes a zero-centred crowd number easier to read as a funding-flow artefact than as a strong statement about outcome probability.

Traders should watch for any late UFC confirmation, bout-order changes, weigh-in updates, and final event-night scoring conditions, because those are the triggers that convert tentative interest into actual book depth.[2][4] With the settlement window closing shortly after the scheduled fight time, deposits and withdrawals matter more than usual: if a market participant cannot get fiat on-ramped quickly, or prefers SEPA bank transfer or USDC rails over card-based funding, the order book can remain shallow until late money arrives.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.