Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5) | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FK Borac Banja Luka (-1.5) | 0% |
| FK Borac Banja Luka (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Borac Banja Luka O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Borac Banja Luka O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Borac Banja Luka O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Borac Banja Luka 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Borac Banja Luka 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| FK Borac Banja Luka 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Borac Banja Luka 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The UEFA Champions League second-leg qualifier between PFK Levski Sofia and FK Borac Banja Luka concluded on 7 July 2026 with a 1–1 draw, meaning the aggregate outcome for the “More Markets” proposition is already settled. The crowd-implied 100% YES probability reflects this finality: the match result is historical, not prospective, so the settlement condition has been met and no further on-field action can alter the outcome.
Historically, prediction markets tied to completed fixtures with confirmed results show immediate convergence to 100% certainty once the official score is ratified by UEFA, as seen in prior Champions League qualifiers where draw outcomes locked in “More Markets” settlements within hours of the final whistle. This pattern holds regardless of payment friction; traders who deposited via Klarna, SEPA, or USDC before result confirmation captured the full book depth, while late on-ramp attempts faced higher fees or failed withdrawals due to rail congestion near settlement windows.
The only catalysts now are administrative: UEFA’s official match report publication and the platform’s automated settlement trigger at 17:30 UTC on 14 July. No new announcements, schedules, or dependencies remain active. Recent coverage from FootballCritic confirms the 1–1 result and lists goal scorers Juricic (9’, penalty) and Oko-Flex (55’), eliminating ambiguity[2]. With the event closed, funding flows into this market have ceased, and book depth is purely a function of prior deposit timing and withdrawal rail efficiency.
Methodology
This page compares PFK Levski Sofia vs. FK Borac Banja Luka - More Markets with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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