Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Larne FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Larne FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Tre Fiori FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Larne FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tre Fiori FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Larne FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Larne FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Tre Fiori FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Larne FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Tre Fiori FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tre Fiori FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tre Fiori FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tre Fiori FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Larne FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tre Fiori FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tre Fiori FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Larne FC defeated Tre Fiori FC 1–0 in their UEFA Champions League first-leg clash on 7 July 2026, a result that already settled the primary outcome for this fixture. The prediction market titled “More Markets” now trades on ancillary propositions—such as total goals, player bookings, or half-time scores—for the return match scheduled later in the same week, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to the YES side of the active contract.
Historically, secondary markets in Champions League qualifiers between minnows like Larne and Tre Fiori show minimal liquidity until deposit rails are confirmed. Comparable cases from 2024–25 show that when on-ramp friction is high—particularly with Klarna or SEPA delays—book depth collapses, and implied probabilities drift toward extremes. The current 0% YES reading aligns with this pattern: traders are not pricing in event risk but rather funding friction, as withdrawal rails (USDC, Klarna) remain untested for this specific book.
Key catalysts include the official confirmation of the return-leg date and any UEFA announcement on player eligibility or venue changes. A recent UEFA circular dated 10 July confirmed no schedule shifts for the Larne–Tre Fiori series, but traders should monitor Klarna’s UK payment gateway status, as any temporary suspension of SEPA or card deposits would further suppress market depth and lock probabilities at extremes [1]. Until payment rails stabilise, the market will likely remain thin and unresponsive to sporting fundamentals.
Methodology
This page compares Larne FC vs. Tre Fiori FC - More Markets with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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