Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Extra Innings | 100% |
| O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 0% |
| NRFI | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| O/U 17.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 8–7 in a walk-off victory at Chase Field on Sunday, 19 July 2026, completing a dramatic rally from a seven-run deficit in the 10th inning [1]. The game, part of a three-game regular-season series, began at 4:10 PM ET with Andre Pallante and Eduardo Rodriguez as the probable pitchers [2]. With the outcome already confirmed, the prediction market for this matchup now carries a 0% implied probability for a Cardinals win, reflecting the settled result rather than uncertainty.
Historically, prediction markets tied to completed MLB games resolve immediately once official statistics are published, rendering pre-game probabilities obsolete post-final score. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that markets with 0% or 100% crowd-implied probabilities after game completion settle within hours, provided no postponement or cancellation occurs. Since this game was not postponed and ended decisively, the 0% figure aligns with standard resolution behaviour for concluded sporting events.
Traders should monitor the official final statistics release from MLB for confirmation, as this is the primary resolution source [1]. No further catalysts exist, as the game has finished and no make-up is required. For users on polymarket-klarna.co.uk, settlement will depend on the clarity of the deposit and withdrawal rails—Klarna for instant deposits, SEPA for euro transfers, and USDC for crypto withdrawals—since book depth correlates directly with funding flow efficiency. Any delay in statistic confirmation could briefly pause settlement, but the outcome is already evident.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $444K.
Methodology
This page compares St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
Trade St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on Polymarket Klarna UK
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