Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 73% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| NRFI | 48% |
| Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees | 46% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| O/U 8.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Extra Innings | 10% |
Market context
The Seattle Mariners face the New York Yankees on 11 August at 7:05 PM ET in a regular-season matchup. The market currently reflects 46% implied probability for a Mariners victory, suggesting near-parity with a slight lean toward the Yankees. Settlement occurs by 18 August 2026, allowing for postponement resolution if weather or other factors delay play.
Historical matchups between these franchises show the Yankees have maintained a structural advantage in head-to-head records over recent seasons, though the Mariners' 2024 roster improvements have narrowed the gap. Comparable August regular-season games between playoff-contending teams typically trade in the 45–55% range for the visiting side, depending on pitching matchups and recent form. The current 46% for Seattle aligns with market pricing for a road team without pronounced recent momentum advantages.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments and injury reports through game day, as bullpen depth significantly affects late-inning probabilities. Recent Mariners and Yankees performance streaks, updated through early August, will influence deposit flows and book depth on this market. Withdrawal rails via Klarna, SEPA transfers, and USDC settlement remain available for position closure, though liquidity concentration typically peaks 24–48 hours before event resolution. Weather forecasts for the venue merit attention, as postponement triggers the market's extended settlement window rather than immediate resolution.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $97K.
Methodology
This page compares Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
Trade Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →