Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 80% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 65% |
| O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| O/U 8.5 | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 54% |
| NRFI | 52% |
| O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Extra Innings | 9% |
Market context
The Yankees travel to Citizens Bank Park on 25 July for an evening fixture against the Phillies, with first pitch at 6:05 PM ET. Current crowd pricing sits at 54% for a Yankees victory, reflecting moderate confidence in the away side despite Philadelphia's home-field advantage. The settlement window extends to 1 August 2026, allowing for postponements or rescheduling without early closure.
Historical matchups between these franchises show the Yankees have held a slight edge in recent seasons, though the Phillies' 2022–2023 run to consecutive World Series appearances reshaped perceptions of their competitive standing. Win probability at this stage of the season typically correlates with pitching matchups, recent form, and injury status. The 54% mark suggests traders view the Yankees as marginal favourites, though not decisively so—a positioning consistent with away-team disadvantage offset by roster depth or recent momentum.
Traders should monitor roster announcements through late July, particularly any late-breaking injuries to starting pitchers or key position players. Weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park on game day may influence play style and scoring expectations. Liquidity depth on this market will likely track deposit flows through the platform's payment rails; higher volumes through SEPA transfers or Klarna settlement typically correlate with tighter spreads and more confident pricing as the fixture approaches. Any significant line movement in the 48 hours before first pitch often signals sharp money repositioning based on fresh information.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $149K.
Methodology
This page compares New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies on Polymarket Klarna UK
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