Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 68% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| NRFI | 45% |
| New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 44% |
| O/U 8.5 | 42% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 20% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies are due to meet in a regular-season MLB game on 24 July at 6:45 pm ET, with the market currently implying a **44%** chance of a Yankees win. At that level, the book is effectively pricing Philadelphia as a modest favourite, which is consistent with a late-market baseball spot where short-run line-ups, starting pitchers and bullpen availability can move probabilities more than season-long brand strength.
For comparison, Yankees–Phillies markets tend to sit close to a coin flip when both clubs are healthy, but they can reprice quickly once confirmed line-ups and pitching assignments land. In a payment-friction-sensitive market, that kind of movement often attracts the deepest books from users who can fund quickly through **SEPA**, card rails such as **Klarna**, or **USDC** rather than waiting on slower bank transfers, so the observed depth can reflect who has already topped up rather than pure conviction. That matters here because a 44% ask can be more a snapshot of available liquidity than a stable consensus.
The main catalysts to watch are the official starting pitchers, batting order releases, and any late injury or rest announcements before first pitch. If the game is delayed or moved, the settlement window remains open until completion, which can keep capital tied up longer and reduce turnover for traders relying on withdrawal-friendly rails. Any change in timing or lineup after deposits clear can therefore have an outsized effect on the final price, especially where same-day funding and fast settlement preferences shape participation.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $157K.
Methodology
This page compares New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies on Polymarket Klarna UK
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