Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 100% |
| NRFI | 100% |
| O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Extra Innings | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
Market context
The New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates are scheduled to meet at PNC Park on 7 August, and the market’s 45% crowd-implied yes price points to a near coin flip rather than a strong team edge. Recent head-to-head results have split the pair’s 2026 meetings: the Mets won the opener 11-7 on 26 March, while the Pirates took the rematch 4-3 in 10 innings three days later.[2][15] That sort of series split fits a market that is still pricing in variance, especially with no clear blowout pattern in the matchup.[6][7]
For historical context, both clubs have produced mixed outcomes across the season, which makes a mid-range probability easier to read than a short favourite price. ESPN’s pregame notes say the Pirates are 57-60 overall and 29-28 at home, while the Mets are 50-66 overall and 25-32 on the road; they also note Pittsburgh’s recent 2-8 stretch and New York’s 6-4 last-10 run.[11] In practical terms, that is the sort of split form that can keep a market anchored around the 40s or 50s if neither side is getting sustained support.
For traders, the main catalysts are lineup news, starting-pitcher confirmation, and any late travel or weather friction that affects whether money can flow in early or wait for the first pitch. The settlement window stays open until 14 August, so any postponement would extend the lifecycle and delay capital recycling. On a site where deposits, fees, and withdrawal rails matter, the book tends to deepen only when funding is frictionless: Klarna and SEPA can pull in smaller European entries quickly, while USDC typically supports faster, lower-friction top-ups and exits, which can matter if late team news moves the price after the original crowd has already funded up.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $787K.
Methodology
This page compares New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
Trade New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates on Polymarket Klarna UK
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