Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NRFI | 100% |
| O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 95% |
| Spread -3.5 | 82% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets | 1% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 0% |
Market context
The upcoming MLB clash between the Kansas City Royals and New York Mets takes centre stage at Citi Field in Flushing, New York, with first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, 9 July 2026. This market resolves to the Royals if they win the game, or to the Mets if they prevail; a postponement keeps the market open until completion, while a full cancellation or tie forces a 50-50 split.
Historical parallels from the 8 July matchup, where the Mets erupted for five runs in the bottom of the eighth to secure a 6-2 victory and even the series at one game apiece, frame the current 1% crowd-implied probability for a Royals win[1][3]. Comparable late-inning collapses by visiting teams in high-stakes MLB series often correlate with such skewed odds, suggesting the book depth reflects entrenched momentum rather than pure chance.
Traders should monitor real-time pitching rotations and weather updates at Citi Field, as a single rain delay could shift settlement dynamics before the 17:10 UTC window closes on 16 July 2026[2]. Recent coverage from USA Today confirms broadcast availability via Royals.TV and SportsNet New York, but any streaming disruption or lineup change announced post-10:00 ET could alter the funding flows that drive this market’s liquidity[2].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $777K.
Methodology
This page compares Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
Trade Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets on Polymarket Klarna UK
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