Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox held on 26 June at Rate Field in Chicago, which the White Sox won decisively with a 22–1 scoreline[1][3]. This outcome has already resolved the prediction market, rendering the current 0% YES probability for the Royals a factual reflection of the completed result rather than a speculative forecast.

Historically, similar MLB mismatches where one team scores over 20 runs against a struggling opponent have consistently resolved markets in favour of the dominant side, with no credible cases of late-game reversals altering the final outcome[1][6]. In comparable 2024 and 2025 seasons, games ending with 15+ run differentials resolved markets with 99% certainty for the winning team, framing this 0% probability as an accurate post-event assessment rather than an unusual market signal.

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements regarding any potential game cancellations or make-up dates, though the 22–1 result confirms the game was completed without interruption[3][5]. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the final statistics are official and recognised, eliminating dependencies on disputed scoring or postponed play[3]. With settlement windows ending 23:40 on 3 July 2026, the market depth is driven by funding flows through Klarna and SEPA rails, where deposit fees and withdrawal friction directly influence book liquidity for resolved outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.