Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Extra Innings | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| NRFI | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Houston Astros defeated the Detroit Tigers 7-5 in their Major League Baseball game at Comerica Park on Sunday, 28 June 2026, with Christian Walker’s three-run homer in the 10th inning sealing the victory for Houston[1][2]. This result confirms the 100% YES crowd-implied probability for the Astros winning the matchup, as the game has already concluded and the official final statistics are now recorded by the governing body[2][5].
Historically, MLB games where one team holds a 100% pre-game probability and the contest finishes without postponement or cancellation resolve definitively to the favoured side, mirroring past outcomes where late-inning rallies did not alter the final resolution source[1][2]. Comparable cases from the 2025 and 2024 seasons show that when a game ends with a clear winner and no tie, the market resolves to that team, reinforcing the reliability of the current settlement for this prediction market[1].
Traders should monitor the official MLB announcement confirming the final score and any potential delays in the publication of pitch-by-pitch data, which could affect the timing of settlement[5]. While no new announcements are expected post-game, the dependency on the governing body’s final statistics remains critical, and any discrepancy in the recorded score would require immediate verification from ESPN or MLB’s official film room[2][5]. The traction of this market is directly tied to the funding flows that drive its book depth, as deposit and withdrawal rails like Klarna and USDC facilitate the liquidity supporting such high-confidence outcomes[1].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $798K.
Methodology
This page compares Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
Trade Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers on Polymarket Klarna UK
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