Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 76% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| NRFI | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| O/U 8.5 | 44% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals are due to meet in an MLB game on 24 July at 8:15 pm ET, and the market’s 42% YES price implies a modestly lower chance of a Reds win than a true coin flip. Recent head-to-head results show why that is not a strong favourite position: St. Louis beat Cincinnati 10-3 on 5 June, with Alec Burleson homering and Lars Nootbaar contributing in his season debut.[1]
For comparison, a 42% crowd-implied probability tends to sit in the range where small changes in team news, pitching and market access can move the price sharply. In a baseball market like this, depth is often driven less by opinion alone than by how easily participants can get funds in and out: low-friction deposits, clear fee structures, and fast withdrawals typically support tighter spreads and steadier turnover. Where traders can use payment rails such as Klarna, SEPA or USDC, book depth is often more resilient because settlement and reloading friction are reduced, especially around late team-news windows.
The main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, starting pitchers, and any official postponement risk before first pitch, because this market stays open if the game is delayed and only resolves on a completed result. Traders will also watch for changes in schedule or make-up arrangements, since a cancellation or tie would force a 50-50 settlement under the market rules.
Sources: 1
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $79K.
Methodology
This page compares Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
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