Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 96% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 96% |
| Match Winner | 95% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs GAM Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Movistar KOI have already secured a 1-0 victory over GAM Esports in the Esports World Cup Group C stage, confirming the European side’s dominance in this specific encounter. The prediction market, which initially targeted the lower bracket semifinal scheduled for 15 July, now reflects a settled outcome where KOI are the clear winners, driving the crowd-implied probability to 100% YES for their success.
Historical precedents in LoL group-stage fixtures show that when a team achieves an early lead in a BO3, the market often locks in near-certainty before the final games conclude, as seen in similar EWC 2025 matches where European squads overcame Asian opponents with decisive first-game wins. In this case, the 1-0 result from the group stage effectively pre-determined the semifinal trajectory, eliminating the volatility typically associated with unplayed matches and aligning the book depth with the confirmed funding flows from depositors using Klarna and SEPA rails.
Traders should monitor official Esports World Cup announcements regarding any potential match cancellations or delays beyond the seven-day window, though the existing 1-0 result makes such scenarios unlikely. Recent coverage from Tips.GG confirms the match is complete and bets are no longer accepted, reinforcing that the settlement will resolve to Movistar KOI without further dependency on future schedules or external news cycles. The frictionless on-ramp via USDC and Klarna has likely accelerated capital entry, cementing the 100% probability as the market approaches its 20 July 2026 settlement window.
Methodology
This page compares LoL: Movistar KOI vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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