Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| LDU de Quito O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| LDU de Quito 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| LDU de Quito (-1.5) | 0% |
| Mirassol FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| LDU de Quito (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| LDU de Quito O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| LDU de Quito O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| LDU de Quito 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| LDU de Quito 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| LDU de Quito 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Mirassol FC and LDU de Quito met in Copa Libertadores group play this year, with each side winning one of the two head-to-head games 2-0, so the on-pitch record is balanced rather than one-sided.[1][6][17] That matters for a “more markets” contract because side markets tend to be thinly priced when the football case is mixed, and the funding side can matter more than the match itself: deposits that clear quickly, low-friction top-ups, and easy exits via familiar rails such as Klarna, SEPA, or USDC usually support a deeper book than markets that rely on slower banking flows. The current 0% crowd-implied probability therefore reads less like a football forecast and more like a signal that traders have not yet supplied enough liquidity to move the market off a default no-trade state.
For catalysts, the main watchpoints are the final competition-specific market list, the timing of any last-minute line-up or venue confirmation, and whether payment rails remain available close to settlement, because those factors determine whether fresh capital can still enter before 13 August at 22:00 UTC.[13][15] ESPN and Flashscore both listed the fixture on 13 August, while live match pages were carrying the event as first leg coverage, which suggests attention should focus on pre-match operational changes rather than new sporting information.[13][15] In practice, any announcement that improves deposit success rates or shortens withdrawal delays can matter disproportionately in a low-depth market, because even modest inflows from Klarna or SEPA users can shift the book more than additional football analysis.
Methodology
This page compares Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito - More Markets with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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